Baseball Draft-Top 10 Player Capsules

Baseball Betting Lines

06/07/2010 -

A capsule look at the top 10 players selected in Monday's first-year player baseball draft (with position, school, height, weight and college class):1, WASHINGTON:BRYCE HARPER, C-OF, J.C. of Southern Nevada, 6-foot-3, 205 pounds.

One of most-hyped players goes No. 1 overall to Washington, which took similarly hyped right-hander Stephen Strasburg last year with top pick. Just 17, slugger surpassed pitcher Alex Fernandez (fourth, 1990) as highest-drafted JUCO player. Skipped final two years of high school, got GED, played in wooden-bat JUCO league this year and hit 31 HRs. Outstanding power - Sports Illustrated cover boy reportedly has hit balls over 550 feet - but tends to overswing at times. Nationals might make him outfielder, where he has played some, to speed his ascent.

2, PITTSBURGH:JAMESON TAILLON, RHP, The Woodlands H.S. (Texas), 6-6, 225.

Considered by many top pitcher in draft has big, solid build and fastball that's in the mid- to upper-90s - with some reports of 99 mph - and overpowers hitters on regular basis. Baseball America rated him as high school player closest to majors, and his command of fastball, sharp curve and solid slider are main reason.

3, BALTIMORE:MANNY MACHADO, SS, Brito H.S. (Fla.), 6-2, 180.

Top high school position player in draft is smooth-fielding shortstop with quick hands and impressive arm strength. Has been most often compared to Alex Rodriguez for hitting ability, defensive skills and fact he's a Florida product - lofty comparisons that haven't seemed to have affected Machado.

4, KANSAS CITY:CHRISTIAN COLON, SS, Cal State Fullerton, 6-0, 180, junior.

Was chosen as first captain of USA national college team last summer, when he was having outstanding campaign until he broke leg against Canada. Had slow start to this college season, but played in every game and gradually came on as he helped lead Titans to NCAA tournament. Spray hitter who's tough to strike out. Solid but not spectacular defensively and could end up as second baseman with pop.

5, CLEVELAND:DREW POMERANZ, LHP, Mississippi, 6-5, 230, junior.

Southeastern Conference pitcher of year was considered by many top lefty available. Rebels' career leader in strikeouts is 9-2 with 2.24 ERA and 139 Ks in 100 2-3 innings. Mixes 90-94 mph fastball with a knee-buckling curve, and changeup has become increasingly effective.

6, ARIZONA:BARRET LOUX, RHP, Texas A&M, 6-5, 220, junior.

First-team All-Big 12 selection (pronounced LOWCKS) was 24th-round pick of Detroit, but opted to go to college. After having sophomore season affected by chips in elbow, bounced back and was completely healthy as junior, going 11-2 with 2.60 ERA and 136 Ks in 104 IP entering Monday night's NCAA tournament game vs. Miami. Has low- to mid-90s fastball and average secondary pitches.

7, NEW YORK METS:MATT HARVEY, RHP, North Carolina, 6-4, 225, junior.

After not signing as third-round pick of Angels in 2007, Harvey went 7-2 in both freshman and sophomore years, but saw ERA rise from 2.79 to 5.40. Still struggles at times with command, but has bounced back to show he has ace-type skills (8-3, 3.09). Fastball sits in mid-90s and mixes in power curve and hard slider. Had career-high 15 Ks vs. Clemson in April.

8, HOUSTON:DELINO DeSHIELDS Jr., OF, Woodward Academy (Ga.), 5-8, 190.

Son of former major league second baseman, Delino DeShields, who was also a first-rounder in 1987, has excellent speed and projects as a center fielder in the pros although needs some work defensively. Also has quick wrists and bat speed, and could develop some power at next level.

9, SAN DIEGO:KARSTEN WHITSON, RHP, Chipley H.S. (Fla.), 6-4, 195.

Considered by many to be behind only Jameson Taillon in discussion of country's best high school right-handers. Has impressive repertoire with mid-90s fastball, sharp slider and tough changeup.

10, OAKLAND:MICHAEL CHOICE, OF, Texas-Arlington, 6-0, 215, junior.

Southland Conference player of year set school record with 34 career homers, and ranks second with .392 career batting average. He also showed good patience at plate, leading Division I players in walks with 76 this season. Scouts love his quick bat and wrists and raw power. Shows terrific speed and solid arm strength.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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