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02/19/2007 - Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Harvick won the 2007 Daytona 500. The No.29 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet driver took the checkered flag just ahead of second-place Mark Martin as a caution flag came to end the race.
The victory was Harvick's first Daytona 500 win and the 11th win of his Nextel Cup career.
Surprise pole winner David Gilliland brought the field to the green flag to begin the 49th running of the Daytona 500. And early on he refused to give up the lead. Through 10 laps he was still the leader. Behind him were Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Stewart and Denny Hamlin.
Moving backwards was front row starter Ricky Rudd, who fell all the way to 20th by lap 15. Moving up the charts was Jeff Gordon, who won the second Gatorade Duel at Daytona on Thursday, but received a penalty in post-race inspection and was forced to start from the back of the field.
Boris Said spun on lap 17 in turn two to bring out the first caution flag of the afternoon and send everyone down pit road for adjustments, new tires and fuel.
Kurt Busch won the race of pit road to become the second race leader of the day. Busch was joined at the top of the charts by his brother Kyle Busch on lap 25. Then Stewart made his way around the outside of both brothers to take the lead on lap 49.
Through green flag pit stops beginning on lap 62 and Stewart maintained the race lead with Kurt Busch glued to his bumper. The pair held more than a two- second margin over third-place Newman. The huge lead was short-lived as Newman led a four-car charge to reel the leaders in.
Kyle Petty brought out the day's second caution flag on lap 79. On the pit stop, Stewart stalled his car, got behind a pit-road accident involving Robby Gordon and Gilliland and came out 40th.
Stewart's error and a great pit stop by the No.29 RCR Chevrolet crew gave the lead to Kevin Harvick. Not for long, however as both Kurt and Kyle Busch quickly teamed up to pass him for the lead.
On lap 116 Kyle Busch reported that his "tires were gone" and he began to drop back through the top-10. Hamlin quickly filled the void behind Kurt Busch in the second position as the field reached 120 laps and prepared for another round of green-flag pit stops.
Kurt Busch and Hamlin pitted together and came out first and second, respectively. Of note was Rudd moving into third place and Stewart returned to the top-10 for the first time since his pit-road problems.
Stewart cracked the top-five on lap 140 and slipped past Hamlin for fourth a lap later. He was flying towards the leaders. Two laps later he was third behind Kurt and Kyle Busch. The No.20 moved to the outside and Truex Jr. moved with him and grabbed the lead on lap 150.
Then on lap 153 Stewart got loose in turn four and Kurt Busch couldn't avoid the slowing No.20 and they collided knocking both drivers out of the race.
"Our Chevy was fast, it just wasn't meant to be," said Stewart after being released from the infield care center.
The incident left Kyle Busch on the lead, but everyone pitted for the final time and Truex Jr. won the race of pit road followed by Martin and Kyle Busch.
Truex Jr. held the lead until lap 167 when Matt Kenseth moved around the outside for the lead. But there were 16 cars within three-quarters of a second of the lead so it was still anyone's race.
With 27 laps to go the third caution flag flew when Jimmie Johnson, Tony Raines, Jeff Green David Reutimann and Denny Hamlin got involved in the middle of the pack. It appeared to start when Johnson veered right into the outside wall after getting loose in turn two.
"I thought I had it saved, but it snapped loose into the fence," said last year's Daytona 500 winner.
All leaders took the opportunity to pit for new tires for the 21-lap shootout to the finish.
Martin would begin the restart with the lead followed by Carl Edwards, who rebounded from a pit-road penalty, Reed Sorenson, Johnny Sauter and Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Martin, Greg Biffle, Kenseth and Truex Jr. broke free from the pack, but another caution flag flew on lap 186. Edwards started it by scraping the wall sending Blaney down pit road while avoiding the No.99 Ford. Unfortunately, Blaney couldn't get slowed down enough when he returned to the track and hit Ken Schrader.
After the accident cleanup just 10 laps remained.
It was Kyle Busch making the big run and by staying at the bottom of the track got up to second place behind Martin with seven laps to go. They were still that way with four laps.
Then Kenseth got loose and knocked Jamie McMurray into the outside wall and with so many cars running so close together, caught a number of other cars including Earnhardt Jr. and Rudd.
The final two laps were wild. Martin was busy holding off Busch, but Harvick made a great run on the outside. He avoided Kyle Busch and with Kenseth on his rear bumper caught Martin. They were side-by-side as the hit the checkered flag with Harvick edging Martin by about three feet.
"Kenseth just pushed the hell out of me there," said a jubilant Harvick. "I didn't let up off the floor, we kept hitting things and bouncing off...We were 30-something with 15 laps to go and we came up through there. I can't believe it."
Harvick swept both the Busch and Nextel Cup races.
Unofficially Jeff Burton, Mike Wallace and David Ragan completed the top-five.
The next race is set for Sunday, February 25th at the California Speedway.
<< Barca falls to Valencia, now tied with Sevilla at top
Valencia, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Valencia vaulted into the top three with a
2-1 home win against leaders Barcelona on Sunday in Spanish La Liga action.
Goals by Miguel Angulo and David Silva just after the break gave the home
squad
<< Crosby, Pens win battle of young stars
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a battle of two of the game's top young
stars, it was Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins getting the best of
this installment, downing Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals 3-2
at Mell
<< Lens loses ground on Lyon
Monaco, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a scoreless draw at Monaco on Sunday,
Lens lost ground on French Ligue 1 leaders Lyon.
The team now sits 13 points behind the leaders who seem to well on their way
to their sixth consecutive league
<< Hossa leads Rangers past Blackhawks
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcel Hossa's late first-period goal was the
difference, as the New York Rangers edged the Chicago Blackhawks, 2-1, at
Madison Square Garden.
Martin Straka also tallied for the Rangers, who have won
No. 11 Georgia downs Auburn >>
Auburn, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Janese Hardrick scored 20 points to lead No. 11
Georgia past Auburn, 62-55, on Sunday.
Tasha Humphrey netted 14 points for Georgia (23-5, 10-3 Southeastern), which
won its fourth straight. Christy Marshall ad
Shanahan out of hospital; resting at home >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Rangers left wing Brendan Shanahan is
out of the hospital and resting at home, one day after an accidental on-ice
hit landed him in a local hospital overnight.
The veteran forward collided with t
Top-ranked Duke stays perfect >>
College Park, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lindsay Harding scored 29 points on 12-
of-20 shooting as top-ranked Duke bested No. 6 Maryland, 69-57, at the Comcast
Center
Carrem Gay added 14 points for the undefeated Blue Devils (28-0, 13-0 ACC
Howell takes down Mickelson in Nissan playoff >>
Pacific Palisades, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Charles Howell III got up and down
for par on the third playoff hole Sunday to defeat Masters champion Phil
Mickelson and win the Nissan Open.
Mickelson birdied the 17th hole in regulation
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
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