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09/09/2010 - Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Revolution travel to take on Chivas USA on Friday night in a Major League Soccer fixture between two clubs desperate for points.
Both teams sit at or near the bottom of their respective conferences, and with the regular season winding down, the time is now to make a move or be on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.
The Revs (7-12-3) are third-from-the bottom in the Eastern table, but are coming off a confidence-boosting 3-1 win at home vs. Seattle this past weekend. Not only did New England earn the full points on their home turf, but they did so against a club that had been unbeaten in seven league fixtures.
"I think it speaks for itself after the week we've had," New England coach Steve Nicol said after the win. "We basically got robbed the three points last weekend [in a 2-1 loss vs. Philadelphia]. We were real unfortunate on Wednesday in [a 2-1 loss to Morelia in the SuperLiga] final. But to come back from those two games, the third game in eight days, and go about it the way we did I think says all we need to know about the players and their attitude and the commitment and how they stick together. It was fantastic."
The win snapped a three-game losing streak in league play, and gave the revs hope that they could make a run over their final eight games.
Chivas USA (6-12-4), on the other hand, is coming off a potentially demoralizing 3-0 loss at Colorado.
"[The loss to Colorado] is going to be a tough game to regroup from, but we will and look forward to [Friday's game vs. New England]," Chivas USA coach Martin Vasquez told mlssoccer.com.
The Goats, who are in last in the Western table, know they must run the table over their last eight league fixtures to have any chance at playing in the second season.
"We have to win the next eight games," Chivas USA's Mariano Trujillo told mlssoccer.com. "We still have a chance to make it to the playoffs if we win. We have to do our jobs."
The Goats could be without midfielder Blair Gavin, defender Jonathan Bornstein and forward Giancarlo Maldonado because of injuries, while new England will be without forwards Zak Boggs and Taylor Twellman for the same reason. Midfielder Jason Griffiths and forward Edgaras Jankauskas are listed as doubtful, while defender Cory Gibbs is probable with an ankle injury.
<< Padres' Hairston Jr. optimistic after throwing
SAN DIEGO (AP) -Padres infielder Jerry Hairston Jr. threw for the first time since going on the disabled list and says he's optimistic about getting back on the field.Hairston says he's ``pleasantly surprised'' after making 30-40 throws at about 80
<< Arsenal's Walcott to miss 4-6 weeks
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arsenal winger Theo Walcott could be out
for six weeks after injuring his ankle while playing internationally for
England, it was announced on Thursday.
"The tackle looked quite bad," Arsenal man
<< Portuguese Football Federation dismisses coach Queiroz
Lisbon, Portugal (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portugal fired its national soccer coach
Carlos Queiroz, effective immediately, it was announced on Thursday.
The Portuguese Football Federation (FPF) made the decision because of the
team's poor p
<< Phoenix extends agreement with Las Vegas
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Coyotes announced on Thursday that
the team has extended their affiliation agreement with Las Vegas of the ECHL.
The Wranglers play in the Pacific Division of the 19-team ECHL. The team has
the
Rangers edge Blue Jays to earn split >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mitch Moreland drove in three runs as Texas
doubled up Toronto, 4-2, in the finale of a four-game series from Rogers
Centre.
Vladimir Guerrero added three hits and scored twice while Nelson Cruz
Rasmus, Cardinals dominate Braves >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colby Rasmus went 4-for-4 with a pair of home
runs and four RBI as St. Louis dominated Atlanta, 11-4, in the opener of a
four-game set.
Skip Schumaker went 3-for-5 with a two-run home run and two runs sc
21st-ranked Tigers take down Bulldogs in SEC tussle >>
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cameron Newton threw for a pair of
touchdowns to help the 21st-ranked Auburn Tigers hold off the Mississippi
State Bulldogs, 17-14, in SEC action.
Newton completed 11-of-19 passes for 136 yard
Youzhny, Nadal reach U.S. Open semis >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mikhail Youzhny and eight-time
major titlist Rafael Nadal won their quarterfinal matches on Thursday at the
2010 U.S. Open.
Nadal, the world No. 1, handled eighth-seeded Fernando Verdasco 7-
Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back
With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.
"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."
Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .
Get all your baseball betting lines, MLB lines and MLB team props at the My Sportbook.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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